Seismic Swarm Analysis: Strait of Gibraltar, December 2021
The Strait of Gibraltar marks the tectonic boundary between the African and Eurasian plates, where oblique convergence drives moderate seismicity. This narrow marine corridor, approximately 14 km wide at its narrowest point, experiences ongoing deformation linked to the broader western Mediterranean tectonic regime. Geological records indicate that the region has hosted multiple seismic swarms since 2000, with seven documented episodes prior to and including late 2021.
SeismoSight internal data classify Swarm S20211221.1 as having begun at 04:50 on 20 December 2021 and concluded at 05:06 on 30 December 2021. Within this 240-hour window, 135 earthquakes were recorded. Analysis of the first 100 events reveals a compact temporal distribution dominated by low-to-moderate magnitudes. The largest events reached 3.7 on 20 and 21 December, while the majority fell between 1.7 and 2.8. Focal depths ranged from 2 km to 33 km, with many events clustered between 10 km and 30 km, consistent with brittle failure within the upper crust.
Early activity on 20 December showed rapid succession of events between 16:00 and 16:27, followed by the first magnitude-3.7 shock at 21:39. Subsequent peaks occurred near midnight on 21 December, including a second 3.7 event and a 3.6 shock within an hour. Magnitudes then declined, with only isolated events exceeding 3.0 later in the sequence. Depth variations suggest both shallow crustal and slightly deeper sources, possibly reflecting heterogeneous stress release along local fault segments.
Swarm recurrence since 2000 follows a pattern of infrequent but clustered episodes. Prior swarms occurred in 2016 (one event) and six times in 2021, indicating elevated activity during the latter year. The 2021 swarm sequence aligns with this trend of short-duration, high-event-count episodes rather than isolated mainshock-aftershock sequences.
Such swarms in the Strait of Gibraltar are interpreted as expressions of distributed strain accommodation across a complex plate-boundary zone. Continued monitoring remains essential for distinguishing background seismicity from potential precursors to larger events.
References
SeismoSight internal classification records for Swarm S20211221.1.
Geological Survey of Spain (IGME) tectonic framework reports on the Gibraltar Arc.
USGS Earthquake Catalog regional summaries for the western Mediterranean.